Understanding bet probabilities

Andrew shows you the odds on your wagers. Here's how to understand what they mean.

What are bet probabilities?

When handicaps are applied, players have different chances of winning. Andrew calculates and displays these probabilities so you know the expected odds.

How probabilities are calculated

Andrew considers:

• Handicap differential: The difference between players' handicaps
• Course difficulty: Slope and rating affect stroke distribution
• Bet type: Match play vs. stroke play have different dynamics
• Historical data: How handicaps typically perform

Reading the odds display

Percentage format

You might see: "You: 45% | Opponent: 55%"

• This means your opponent is slightly favored
• Based on handicap strokes received
• Doesn't account for current form or conditions

What affects your percentage

• Lower handicap: Generally favored in gross bets
• Higher handicap: Receives strokes in net bets, evening odds
• More strokes given: Increases underdog's win probability

Probabilities by bet type

Match play

• Hole-by-hole format is more volatile
• Upsets happen more often than stroke play
• Handicap strokes on specific holes matter

Stroke play

• Total strokes smooth out variance
• Favorites win more consistently
• Larger handicap gaps show clearer favorites

Skins

• High variance format
• Any player can get hot and win multiple skins
• Probabilities are less predictive

What probabilities don't tell you

These numbers are based on handicaps, but golf is unpredictable:

• Current form: Someone might be playing above or below their handicap
• Course familiarity: Home course advantage is real
• Conditions: Wind, rain, and course setup affect everyone differently
• Pressure: Some players thrive or struggle with money on the line

Using probabilities wisely

For fun context

See how the handicaps stack up before betting. It's interesting information.

For fair wagers

If odds are very lopsided, consider adjusting the bet amount or giving additional strokes.

Don't over-rely on them

A 60/40 favorite loses 40% of the time. That's nearly half! Anything can happen.

When odds seem wrong

If probabilities look off, check:

• Are handicaps current and accurate?
• Is the correct tee box selected?
• Are you looking at gross vs. net correctly?

Probabilities are only as good as the handicap data behind them.